Amsterdam TI Finance Research Seminars

Speaker(s)
Alessandro Previtero (UCLA)
Date
2010-02-16
Location
Amsterdam

I document a strong negative relationship between stock market returns and annuiti-zation. Using a novel dataset with more than 103,000 actual payout decisions, I find that
positive stock market returns decrease the likelihood of employees choosing an annuity over a lump sum, and vice versa. More precisely, only recent market performance drives annuitization with almost no weight assigned to returns two years before the decision date.
Investigating two additional datasets, I document that financial education does not mitigate this result and that stock market returns affect individual annuity sales in a similar way. Several explanations can account for these findings: wealth effects generated by movements
of the stock market; endogenous timing of retirement; volatility of stock market returns and time varying risk aversion; and expectations about labor income or infationary pe-riods. After addressing these explanations, I present evidence consistent with employees extrapolating from recent stock market returns.