PhD Lunch Seminars Amsterdam

Speaker(s)
Zoltan Wolf (VU University Amsterdam)
Date
2010-09-21
Location
Amsterdam

We contribute to the productivity literature by using results from firm-level productivity studies to improve forecasts of macro-level productivity growth. The paper applies current methods for estimating firm-level productivity on the US. Census Bureau’s Annual Survey of Manufacturers to generate micro-aggregated times-series components that capture the joint dynamics of the firm-level productivity and size distributions. Including micro-aggregated components improves macro-level total factor productivity forecasts, either in a simple univariate setting, or when using Bayesian model averaging techniques (BMA) to combine results from a variety of different multivariate forecasting models.