Erasmus Finance Seminars

Speaker(s)
Pedro Santa-Clara (The Nova School of Business and Economics, Portugal)
Date
2013-05-28
Location
Rotterdam

We test the relevance of technical and fundamental variables in forming currency portfolios. Carry, momentum and reversal all contribute to portfolio performance, whereas the real exchange rate and the current account do not. The resulting optimal portfolio produces out-of-sample returns that are not explained by risk and are valuable to diversified investors holding stocks and bonds. Exposure to currencies increases the Sharpe ratio of diversified portfolios by 0.5 on average, while reducing crash risk. The profitability of our optimal strategy decreases with the amount of assets under management by hedge funds, consistent with the adaptive markets hypothesis.