Amsterdam Econometrics Seminars and Workshop Series

Speaker(s)
Carles Bretó Martínez (University Carlos III Madrid, Spain)
Date
Friday, 22 November 2013
Location
Amsterdam

Dynamic systems of interest can be complex and involve non-linearities, unobserved variables and multiple (potentially non-Gaussian) noises. These features complicate modeling and statistical analysis. We will consider statistical approaches to handle such analysis, paying special attention to stochastic volatility models with leverage. In this context, a likelihood-based analysis is difficult but can be facilitated by a recent contribution that exploits the idea of iterated filtering. We will present such an iterated filtering algorithm and illustrate its use for likelihood-based inference for general partially-observed Markov models. A key aspect of iterated filtering is that it is based on computer code to generate model realizations. This greatly facilitates exploration of model extensions by by-passing the need of additional analytical derivations. However, such “plug-and-play” exploration of model extensions can result in unexpected features, as we will illustrate with examples that arise when randomizing transition rates of continuous-time Markov chains.