We analyze how corporate finance decisions affect stock returns in a stochastic Ramsey model. Motivated by stylized facts, we incorporate two distinct features in the model. First, the supply of equity (number of outstanding shares) is fixed. Second, firms pursue a target leverage ratio, and balance retained earnings against new debt issuance when financing real investments accordingly. We characterize both the time-series and cross-sectional properties of equity returns implied by the model and confront these with historical data. The model contains only a few time-invariant parameters, but is able to match many dynamic properties of returns (e.g., fat tails, variation in mean and volatility, mean reversion, time-varying betas, return predictability).

Joint work with P. Heijnen (University of Groningen)