Amsterdam TI Finance Research Seminars

Speaker(s)
Chris Malloy (Harvard Business School)
Date
2012-06-06
Location
Amsterdam

We demonstrate that simply by using the ethnic makeup surrounding a firm’s location, we can predict, on average, which trade links are valuable for firms. Using data on the import and export decisions of US firms, we show that firms are significantly more likely to trade with countries that have a strong resident population near their firm. Further, those firms that exploit the information networks of their connected populations (strategic traders) see significant increases in market share. Even though the connected population and import-export data are publicly available, the market seems to ignore this information. Strategic importers and exporters outperform other importers and exporters by 10%-15% per year in risk-adjusted returns. The increased value of these strategic traders is also missed by analysts, who consistently underestimate their earnings, resulting in significantly more positive earnings surprises for these firms. Further, at times when the information network represents a more valuable link, specifically at times of tariff cuts and positive GDP shocks to the connected country, we find that our effects are even larger. We show that one specific channel of the information network is through board members: a connected local population predicts more board members from that same country, and a significantly higher value for those strategic traders that also have connected board members. In sum, our results document a surprisingly large impact of immigrants’ economic role as conduits of information for firms in their new countries.