PhD Lunch Seminars Amsterdam

Speaker(s)
Lisette Swart (VU)
Date
2013-01-29
Location
Amsterdam

Time inconsistent behavior of farmers in developing countries has puzzled researchers as it implies foregoing highly profitable opportunities: farmers keep postponing profitable investments which they were determined to do. The reasons for this are not yet well understood. Many researchers have pointed at self-control problems. Recently, in an important paper Gine et al. (2012) have proposed that other factors such as shocks may also be responsible for people’s changes of plan. They carried out a field experiment to investigate whether shocks determine plan revisions but did not find evidence for it. This paper provides deeper insight into this issue by repeating Gine et al.’s experiment and improving the methodology in three important aspects. First, by using financial diaries we were able to measure shocks much more precisely. Second, we show that their estimating equation is wrongly specified. Finally, we take into account the boundary conditions implicit in the experiment. Contrary to Gine et al. we find a large effect of shocks on plan revisions.