We develop a new parametric estimation procedure for option panels observed with error which relies on asymptotic approximations assuming an ever increasing set of observed option prices in the moneyness-maturity (cross-sectional) dimension, but with a fixed time span. We develop consistent estimators of the parameter vector and the dynamic realization of the state vector that governs the option price dynamics. The estimators converge stably to a mixed-Gaussian law and we develop feasible estimators for the limiting variance. We provide semi-parametric tests for the option price dynamics based on the distance between the spot volatility extracted from the options and the one obtained non-parametrically from high-frequency data on the underlying asset. We further construct new formal tests of the model fit for specific regions of the volatility surface and for the stability of the risk-neutral dynamics over a given period of time. A comprehensive Monte Carlo study indicates that the procedures work admirably under realistic model calibrations. In an empirical application to S&P 500 index options we find strong evidence for time-varying jump risk premiums and a more flexible relation between risk premiums and volatility.
Erasmus Finance Seminars
- Speaker(s)
- Torben Andersen (Northwestern University)
- Date
- 2012-10-16
- Location
- Rotterdam