PhD Lunch Seminars Rotterdam

Speaker(s)
Yuxin Yao (Tilburg University, The Netherlands)
Date
Thursday, December 1, 2016
Location
Rotterdam

This paper studies how sex imbalance in marriage market affects timing of the first marriage. As a major relaxation of the one-child policy in China during 1980s, the one-and-half children policy was implemented in some provinces which allows extra births conditional on the gender of the first child. Rural residents are allowed to have a second child if the first child is a girl, but are not if the first is a boy. Due to son preference at higher order births, this policy change leads to a higher sex ratio of males to females thus an excess supply of males in marriage market after 2000s. Based on data from CFPS 2014 and Chinese Census 2000, I estimate the effect of sex ratio on timing of the first marriage by exploiting exogenous variation of the policy implementation across regions and cohorts. From a difference-in-difference (DID) approach with mixture proportional hazard (MPH) duration models, I find that the first marriage is significantly delayed in regions with a high sex ratio for both males and females, but the effect is smaller and less significant for females.