Speaker(s)
Michael Kirchler (University of Innsbruck)
Date
2010-06-18
Location
Amsterdam

To explore why bubbles frequently emerge in the experimental asset market model of Smith et al. (1988, henceforth SSW), we vary the fundamental value process (constant or decreasing) and the cash-to-assetvalue-ratio (constant or increasing). We find that a declining fundamental value is the main driver for mispricing and overvaluation. A questionnaire reveals that most subjects do not understand the declining fundamental value process in SSW, but expect the fundamental value to stay constant or increase. Running the experiment with a different context (“stocks of a depletable gold mine” instead of “stocks”) significantly reduces mispricing and overvaluation, which highlights the sensitivity of the SSW model to the context in which it is presented.