Rotterdam Seminars Econometric Institute

Speaker(s)
Jun Ye Li (University of Essex, United Kingdom)
Date
Thursday, April 10, 2014
Location
Rotterdam

This paper studies properties of variance risk premium (VRP) and its predictive performance by proposing a flexible self-exciting asset pricing model. Differently from the total VRP, its jump component, though also negative, displays an upward-sloping term structure. In addition, the short-term jump VRP slowly reverts to its long-run mean, thus reflecting investors’ fear of a market crash. The predictive performance of the VRP improves considerably, especially in the short term, when using information on its components and term structures.