After the fall of the Berlin Wall, East Germany experienced an unprecedented temporary drop in fertility driven by economic uncertainty. We investigate whether children born during this nativity slump were positively or negatively selected. This reveals that mothers who gave birth in that period had personal characteristics linked to poor parenting. We show using various educational measures that these children indeed performed worse from an early age. Exploration of the underlying mechanisms reveals that parental support and family structure play an important explanatory role. Finally, results for siblings support the negative parental selection rather than a bad timing effect. Joint with Arnaud Chevalier.

October 2014
Abstract is preliminary and incomplete – please do not quote.