TI Complexity in Economics Seminars

Speaker(s)
Tibor Neugebauer (University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg)
Date
Wednesday, 16 May 2018
Location
Amsterdam

This paper studies the causal effect of uncertainty on asset prices in the laboratory, using a new design that incorporates many characteristics of the real world. In the first treatment, the risk treatment, cash flows to equity follow a known random distribution. In the second, the uncertainty treatment, human managers make production decisions which renders future cash flows uncertain. We find that shareholders require a higher equity premium under the uncertainty treat- ment than under the risk treatment. Asset prices are also more volatile in the Uncertainty treatment. These findings are in line with a stylized model where un- certainty about cash flow’s variance make assets appear subjectively riskier than they are, and where learning generates time-varying expected returns. Joint with Reinhard Selten and Julien Penasse.