We contribute to the productivity literature by using results from firm-level productivity studies to improve forecasts of macro-level productivity growth. The paper applies current methods for estimating firm-level productivity on the US. Census Bureau’s Annual Survey of Manufacturers to generate micro-aggregated times-series components that capture the joint dynamics of the firm-level productivity and size distributions. Including micro-aggregated components improves macro-level total factor productivity forecasts, either in a simple univariate setting, or when using Bayesian model averaging techniques (BMA) to combine results from a variety of different multivariate forecasting models.
PhD Lunch Seminars Amsterdam
- Speaker(s)
- Zoltan Wolf (VU University Amsterdam)
- Date
- 2010-09-21
- Location
- Amsterdam