“Earnings forecasts are often analyzed as they can be useful for
investment decisions. Currently, research has focused on forecast
performance in relation to company characteristics, on categorizing the
analysts into two distinct groups and on the effect of an earnings
announcement by the company on the earnings forecasts for the two
surrounding years. In contrast, in our paper we investigate what
determines the value of the forecast. Also, we investigate to what
extent the timing of the forecast can be modeled. As an illustration we
analyze within-year earnings forecasts for AMD in the period 1997 to
2011, where the data are obtained from the I/B/E/S database. Our
empirical findings suggest clear drivers of the value and the timing of
the forecasts. Hence, we show that not only the forecasts themselves are
predictable, we also find that the timing of the quotes is predictable
to some extent.”

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This paper analyzes the impact of search costs on the target’s choice of the sales procedures. We develop a dynamic model of private takeover process prior to the public merger announcement. Due to the presence of market imperfection, the target has to commit time and efforts to find a suitable buyer. We therefore provide a rationale for the limited use of auction in practice. In addition, we show that in equilibrium, the chance of an auction as well as the optimal number of bidders contacted in an auction is endogenously determined. Based on the equilibrium, the model generates several predictions. In particular, the model predicts that the payoffs to the target in an auction with multiple bidders do not always dominate the payoffs in a one-to-one negotiation. The difference in the target premiums between the two sales procedures ultimately depends on the target’s search ability. The model also relates the dispersion in the bidders’ valuation to the sales procedures and the type of bidders. The model is solved numerically and its results are related with the empirical evidence.
Tentative

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We examine the impact of mobile telephone use on economic development of individual households. Unique cross-sectional data were collected in personal interviews with heads of households (N=196) in Uganda. Economic development is measured at the household level by the Progress out of Poverty Index. We find strong support that mobile phone use positively impacts economic development.